Investor Toolbox: A Look at the 2804 ERP5 For Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN)

Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) has an ERP5 rank of 2804. The ERP5 score was designed by the MFIE Capital team. It combines the Greenblatt Magic formula with ideas developed by Graham & Dodd, who advocated the use of 5 to 10 year smoothed earnings to cover full economic business cycles and dampen the effect of expansions and recessions. Finally it adds the book-to-market ratio into the mix.

When undertaking stock analysis, investors might be searching for companies that are presently undervalued. Undervalued stocks may provide a higher chance of realizing big gains. Finding undervalued stocks that are high quality can be the biggest challenge for the investor. Many investors will dig into the numbers and look for companies that have been consistently making lots of money and performing well on the earnings front. 

EBITDA/EV
EBITDA/EV is similar to Earnings Yield, but here we use Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) as Nominator). By doing this, we can compare companies with a different capital structure and capital expenditures. This way it gives a much better idea of the value of a company compared to the popular P/E ratio. You can think of it as the taking all the revenue and subtracting the costs that solely go into running the business. The downside of EBITDA is that it can be abused by companies declaring as “one-off” costs things that should really be considered normal costs. We use the EBITDA of the last 12 months. Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) has an EBITDA/EV of 0.062929.

Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 0.051526.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 0.040002.

FCF Yield 5yr Avg

The FCF Yield 5yr Average is calculated by taking the five year average free cash flow of a company, and dividing it by the current enterprise value. Enterprise Value is calculated by taking the market capitalization plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. The average FCF of a company is determined by looking at the cash generated by operations of the company. The Free Cash Flow Yield 5 Year Average of Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 0.026703.

Price to book, Price to cash flow, Price to earnings

Price to cash flow ratio is another helpful ratio in determining a company’s value. The Price to Cash Flow for Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 21.68666. This ratio is calculated by dividing the market value of a company by cash from operating activities. Additionally, the price to earnings ratio is another popular way for analysts and investors to determine a company’s profitability. The price to earnings ratio for Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 24.778087. This ratio is found by taking the current share price and dividing by earnings per share.  The price to sales stands at 3.364035.

Value Comp 1 / Value Comp 2

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value. The VC1 of Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 46. A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company. The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings. Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield. The Value Composite Two of Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 38.  VC3 is the combination of the following factors:

Price-to-Book
Price-to-Earnings
Price-to-Sales
EBITDA/EV
Price-to-Cash flow
Buyback Yield

As with the VC1 and VC2, companies are put into groups from 1 to 100 for each ratio and the individual scores are summed up. This total score is then put into groups again from 1 to 100. 1 is cheap, 100 is expensive. Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) has a VC3 of 35.

Volatility 12 m, 6m, 3m

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase. Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year. The Volatility 12m of Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 36.8386. This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized. The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility. The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months. The Volatility 3m of Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 32.8023. The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months. The Volatility 6m is 35.0459.

MF Rank

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price. The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital. The MF Rank of Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 2334. A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in. The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Piotroski F-Score

The Piotroski F-Score is a scoring system between 1-9 that determines a firm’s financial strength. The score helps determine if a company’s stock is valuable or not. The Piotroski F-Score of Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 9. A score of nine indicates a high value stock, while a score of one indicates a low value stock. The score is calculated by the return on assets (ROA), Cash flow return on assets (CFROA), change in return of assets, and quality of earnings. It is also calculated by a change in gearing or leverage, liquidity, and change in shares in issue. The score is also determined by change in gross margin and change in asset turnover.

Return on Assets

There are many different tools to determine whether a company is profitable or not. One of the most popular ratios is the “Return on Assets” (aka ROA). This score indicates how profitable a company is relative to its total assets. The Return on Assets for Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN) is 0.177338. This number is calculated by dividing net income after tax by the company’s total assets. A company that manages their assets well will have a higher return, while a company that manages their assets poorly will have a lower return.

Investors may be looking ahead to the next couple of quarters trying to gauge whether the bulls will stay in charge or if the bears will start to take over. Of course, nobody knows for sure which way the market will turn, but being ready for any situation can greatly help the investor prepare. Many investors will be trying to find that balance between being too aggressive and too conservative with stock selection. This can be a tricky aspect to address as there are so many different factors that can come into play. Studying the important pieces of economic data on a regular basis can help with crafting a legitimate hypothesis about where stocks will be in the future.